Liga de Expansión · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 18:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán (Liga de Expansión, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with Leones Negros UDG 66%, the draw 19% and Tepatitlán 15%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | Yes |
| Leones Negros UDG win | 66% | Pick |
| Draw | 19% | |
| Tepatitlán win | 15% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | |
| Goal in both halves | 62% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones Negros UDG | 13 | 69% | 46% | 77% |
| Tepatitlán | 14 | 71% | 64% | 43% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 37% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | 81% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 62% | 62% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leones Negros UDG | 78% | 80% | 50 |
| Tepatitlán | 72% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 76% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Leones Negros UDG season stats · Tepatitlán season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form
League. Liga de Expansión has had over 2.5 goals in 55% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Leones Negros UDG 9 of 13 (5 of 6 at home), Tepatitlán 10 of 14 (5 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 60% and 61%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 53% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 52%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 43% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.27 (Leones Negros UDG) v 0.98 (Tepatitlán) give 63%; 30% weight: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.