Botola Pro · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 18:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra (Botola Pro, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 40% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Ittihad Tanger 46%, the draw 28% and CR Khemis Zemamra 26%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Ittihad Tanger win | 46% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| CR Khemis Zemamra win | 26% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ittihad Tanger | 4 | 75% | 25% | 100% |
| CR Khemis Zemamra | 4 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 63% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 23% | 26% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 38% | 35% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 47% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 41% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ittihad Tanger | 72% | 80% | 50 |
| CR Khemis Zemamra | 66% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Ittihad Tanger season stats · CR Khemis Zemamra season stats · Botola Pro table and form
League. Botola Pro has had over 2.5 goals in 38% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Ittihad Tanger 3 of 4 (1 of 2 at home), CR Khemis Zemamra 3 of 4 (2 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 43% and 43%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 34% and 41%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 38%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 36%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.4 (Ittihad Tanger) v 0.98 (CR Khemis Zemamra) give 43%; 30% weight: 38%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 40%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.