League Cup · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League Cup average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Heart Of Midlothian at 64%, the draw at 22% and Hibernian at 14%, from expected goals of 1.9 and 0.75.
The league sets the starting point. League Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Heart Of Midlothian have 8 in 9 this season (4 of 4 at home), Hibernian 6 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.9 for Heart Of Midlothian and 0.75 for Hibernian. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 9 | 89% | 44% | 78% |
| Hibernian | 9 | 67% | 11% | 78% |
More: Heart Of Midlothian season stats · Hibernian season stats · League Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.