Superliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 15:00 UK time
CompactStats rates FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland (Superliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with FC Nordsjaelland 34%, the draw 31% and FC Midtjylland 35%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | Yes |
| FC Nordsjaelland win | 34% | |
| Draw | 31% | |
| FC Midtjylland win | 35% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 58% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Nordsjaelland | 11 | 45% | 36% | 45% |
| FC Midtjylland | 11 | 55% | 27% | 82% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 39% | 42% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 51% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 58% | 59% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 41% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Nordsjaelland | 72% | 76% | 50 |
| FC Midtjylland | 72% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: FC Nordsjaelland season stats · FC Midtjylland season stats · Superliga table and form
League. Superliga has had over 2.5 goals in 60% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. FC Nordsjaelland 5 of 11 (1 of 5 at home), FC Midtjylland 6 of 11 (2 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 58%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 59% and 60%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 60%.
Head to head. 12 meetings in 3 years, 67% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 60%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.02 (FC Nordsjaelland) v 1.04 (FC Midtjylland) give 34%; 30% weight: 52%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.