Liga Pro · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 21:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Emelec vs Leones del Norte (Liga Pro, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 41% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Emelec 46%, the draw 30% and Leones del Norte 24%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Emelec win | 46% | Pick |
| Draw | 30% | |
| Leones del Norte win | 24% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 49% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 33 | 27% | 12% | 45% |
| Leones del Norte | 33 | 36% | 12% | 48% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 31% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 35% | 38% |
| Goal in both halves | 49% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 58% | 80% | 50 |
| Leones del Norte | 67% | 76% | 33 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 65% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Emelec season stats · Leones del Norte season stats · Liga Pro table and form
League. Liga Pro has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Emelec 9 of 33 (5 of 16 at home), Leones del Norte 12 of 33 (8 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 34% and 39%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 35% and 39%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 39%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 67% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 40%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.25 (Emelec) v 0.82 (Leones del Norte) give 34%; 30% weight: 38%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 41%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.