1. SNL · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 16:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Celje vs Nafta (1. SNL, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 57% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Celje 62%, the draw 24% and Nafta 14%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Celje win | 62% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Nafta win | 14% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 80% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 62% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 80% | 83% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 53% |
| Goal in both halves | 62% | 69% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 71% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Celje season stats · Nafta season stats · 1. SNL table and form
League. 1. SNL has had over 2.5 goals in 62% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Celje 4 of 11 (1 of 5 at home), Nafta 6 of 12 (2 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 54% and 58%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 63% and 58%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 61%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 80% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 62%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.73 (Celje) v 0.69 (Nafta) give 44%; 30% weight: 57%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.