Promotion League · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 15:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Bellinzona vs Bulle (Promotion League, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with Bellinzona 36%, the draw 22% and Bulle 42%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 66% | Yes |
| Bellinzona win | 36% | |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Bulle win | 42% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 79% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 85% | |
| Goal in both halves | 67% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellinzona | 12 | 50% | 33% | 33% |
| Bulle | 12 | 83% | 58% | 75% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 79% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 50% | 48% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 85% | 86% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 58% | 61% |
| Goal in both halves | 67% | 69% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 48% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bellinzona | 74% | 82% | 50 |
| Bulle | 80% | 88% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 82% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Bellinzona season stats · Bulle season stats · Promotion League table and form
League. Promotion League has had over 2.5 goals in 68% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Bellinzona 6 of 12 (4 of 6 at home), Bulle 10 of 12 (7 of 7 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 62% and 73%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 64% and 74%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 69%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.88 (Bellinzona) v 2.03 (Bulle) give 75%; 30% weight: 71%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.