Czech Liga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Baník Ostrava vs Plzen (Czech Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Baník Ostrava 24%, the draw 25% and Plzen 51%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Baník Ostrava win | 24% | |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Plzen win | 51% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava | 11 | 55% | 27% | 27% |
| Plzen | 11 | 73% | 45% | 73% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 40% | 2nd 38% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava | 70% | 66% | 50 |
| Plzen | 74% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 78% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Baník Ostrava season stats · Plzen season stats · Czech Liga table and form
League. Czech Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Baník Ostrava 6 of 11 (2 of 5 at home), Plzen 8 of 11 (4 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 57%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 45% and 53%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 29% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.04 (Baník Ostrava) v 1.65 (Plzen) give 51%; 30% weight: 49%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.