Promotion League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Zürich II at 46%, the draw at 23% and Lugano II at 31%, from expected goals of 1.85 and 1.48.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zürich II have 11 in 12 this season (6 of 7 at home), Lugano II 9 in 12 (4 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 76% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 70% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.85 for Zürich II and 1.48 for Lugano II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 81% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 49% of two or more. The Promotion League rates, last season and this season combined, are 80% and 48% (this season so far: 82% with a first-half goal, from 106 games). After the break: 86% for a goal and 59% for two or more (league 86% and 61%). Zürich II's last 50 games had a first-half goal 82% of the time and a second-half goal 90%; Lugano II's last 50, 82% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 72% (league 70%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 31%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Zürich II season stats · Lugano II season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.