Super Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super Liga average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Žilina at 57%, the draw at 21% and Zemplín Michalovce at 21%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Žilina have 10 in 11 this season (6 of 6 at home), Zemplín Michalovce 4 in 11 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Žilina and 1.22 for Zemplín Michalovce. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Žilina | 11 | 91% | 73% | 91% |
| Zemplín Michalovce | 11 | 36% | 9% | 36% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The Super Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 41% (this season so far: 81% with a first-half goal, from 64 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 53% for two or more (league 75% and 48%). Žilina's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Zemplín Michalovce's last 50, 74% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 32%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Žilina season stats · Zemplín Michalovce season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.