Botola Pro · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Botola Pro average is 38%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Wydad AC at 47%, the draw at 27% and Moghreb Tetouan at 25%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 0.99.
The league sets the starting point. Botola Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wydad AC have 1 in 4 this season (1 of 3 at home), Moghreb Tetouan 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 36%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 42% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Wydad AC and 0.99 for Moghreb Tetouan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wydad AC | 4 | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Moghreb Tetouan | 4 | 25% | 25% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 63% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 25% of two or more. The Botola Pro rates, last season and this season combined, are 63% and 26% (this season so far: 67% with a first-half goal, from 30 games). After the break: 73% for a goal and 35% for two or more (league 72% and 35%). Wydad AC's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 70%; Moghreb Tetouan's last 50, 52% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 48% (league 47%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 29%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Wydad AC season stats · Moghreb Tetouan season stats · Botola Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.