Toppserien (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Toppserien (W) average is 61%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Stabæk W at 40%, the draw at 26% and Fortuna Ålesund W at 34%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.34.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stabæk W have 12 in 19 this season (5 of 10 at home), Fortuna Ålesund W 11 in 19 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Stabæk W and 1.34 for Fortuna Ålesund W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stabæk W | 19 | 63% | 32% | 47% |
| Fortuna Ålesund W | 19 | 58% | 37% | 58% |
Our numbers give this match a 78% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Toppserien (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 38% (this season so far: 75% with a first-half goal, from 114 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 83% and 50%). Stabæk W's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Fortuna Ålesund W's last 19, 84% and 79%. A goal in both halves: 63% (league 65%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 31%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Stabæk W season stats · Fortuna Ålesund W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.