Super Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super Liga average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Spartak Trnava at 48%, the draw at 26% and Komárno at 26%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Spartak Trnava have 8 in 11 this season (4 of 6 at home), Komárno 5 in 11 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.59 for Spartak Trnava and 1.1 for Komárno. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Trnava | 11 | 73% | 45% | 64% |
| Komárno | 11 | 45% | 9% | 73% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The Super Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 41% (this season so far: 81% with a first-half goal, from 64 games). After the break: 75% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 75% and 48%). Spartak Trnava's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 68%; Komárno's last 50, 64% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 33%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Spartak Trnava season stats · Komárno season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.