Czech Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Czech Liga average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Sigma Olomouc at 57%, the draw at 25% and Zbrojovka Brno at 18%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sigma Olomouc have 8 in 11 this season (4 of 5 at home), Zbrojovka Brno 5 in 11 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Sigma Olomouc and 0.84 for Zbrojovka Brno. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sigma Olomouc | 11 | 73% | 27% | 64% |
| Zbrojovka Brno | 11 | 45% | 27% | 45% |
Our numbers give this match a 75% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Czech Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 74% and 34% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 87 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 76% and 42%). Sigma Olomouc's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 70%; Zbrojovka Brno's last 46, 76% and 89%. A goal in both halves: 60% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 30%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Sigma Olomouc season stats · Zbrojovka Brno season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.