A Lyga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The A Lyga average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Šiauliai at 34%, the draw at 25% and Džiugas Telšiai at 41%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 1.59.
The league sets the starting point. A Lyga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Šiauliai have 16 in 31 this season (9 of 16 at home), Džiugas Telšiai 14 in 31 (5 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 31 and 31 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Šiauliai and 1.59 for Džiugas Telšiai. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Šiauliai | 31 | 52% | 35% | 48% |
| Džiugas Telšiai | 31 | 45% | 32% | 42% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The A Lyga rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 32% (this season so far: 69% with a first-half goal, from 148 games). After the break: 79% for a goal and 49% for two or more (league 79% and 46%). Šiauliai's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Džiugas Telšiai's last 50, 62% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 30%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Šiauliai season stats · Džiugas Telšiai season stats · A Lyga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.