Ligue 2 · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Ligue 2 average is 47%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Reims at 59%, the draw at 22% and Sochaux at 19%, from expected goals of 1.97 and 1.03.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Reims have 6 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Sochaux 2 in 9 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.97 for Reims and 1.03 for Sochaux. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 67% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The Ligue 2 rates, last season and this season combined, are 66% and 33% (this season so far: 62% with a first-half goal, from 81 games). After the break: 74% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 74% and 39%). Reims's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 68%; Sochaux's last 50, 70% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 54% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 31%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Reims season stats · Sochaux season stats · Ligue 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.