Premier League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 35%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Petrojet at 33%, the draw at 29% and Smouha SC at 38%, from expected goals of 1.11 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Petrojet have 5 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), Smouha SC 0 in 7 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 27%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 41% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.11 for Petrojet and 1.22 for Smouha SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 58% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 23% of two or more. The Premier League rates, last season and this season combined, are 58% and 21% (this season so far: 56% with a first-half goal, from 70 games). After the break: 73% for a goal and 34% for two or more (league 72% and 35%). Petrojet's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Smouha SC's last 50, 48% and 68%. A goal in both halves: 45% (league 44%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 27%, level 29% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Petrojet season stats · Smouha SC season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.