Superettan · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superettan average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Norrby IF at 34%, the draw at 24% and IFK Varnamo at 42%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.66.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Norrby IF have 13 in 27 this season (8 of 13 at home), IFK Varnamo 16 in 27 (10 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 27 and 27 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Norrby IF and 1.66 for IFK Varnamo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrby IF | 27 | 48% | 30% | 63% |
| IFK Varnamo | 27 | 59% | 41% | 59% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Superettan rates, last season and this season combined, are 73% and 36% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 216 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 52% for two or more (league 80% and 49%). Norrby IF's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; IFK Varnamo's last 50, 72% and 88%. A goal in both halves: 63% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 28%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Norrby IF season stats · IFK Varnamo season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.