Toppserien (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Toppserien (W) average is 61%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Molde W at 64%, the draw at 19% and Bodø / Glimt W at 17%, from expected goals of 2.37 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Molde W have 13 in 19 this season (7 of 10 at home), Bodø / Glimt W 15 in 19 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.37 for Molde W and 1.15 for Bodø / Glimt W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde W | 19 | 68% | 47% | 53% |
| Bodø / Glimt W | 19 | 79% | 53% | 58% |
Our numbers give this match a 78% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The Toppserien (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 38% (this season so far: 75% with a first-half goal, from 114 games). After the break: 85% for a goal and 57% for two or more (league 83% and 50%). Molde W's last 19 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 89%; Bodø / Glimt W's last 46, 83% and 87%. A goal in both halves: 68% (league 65%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 30%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Molde W season stats · Bodø / Glimt W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.