1. SNL · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. SNL average is 62%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Maribor at 48%, the draw at 28% and Olimpija Ljubljana at 24%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 0.89.
The league sets the starting point. 1. SNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maribor have 6 in 12 this season (3 of 6 at home), Olimpija Ljubljana 4 in 12 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 36%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Maribor and 0.89 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor | 12 | 50% | 25% | 58% |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 12 | 33% | 17% | 33% |
Our numbers give this match a 82% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 32% of two or more. The 1. SNL rates, last season and this season combined, are 83% and 34% (this season so far: 71% with a first-half goal, from 59 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 80% and 53%). Maribor's last 50 games had a first-half goal 90% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Olimpija Ljubljana's last 50, 72% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 66% (league 69%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Maribor season stats · Olimpija Ljubljana season stats · 1. SNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.