Ligue 1 · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligue 1 average is 54%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Lyon at 68%, the draw at 20% and Angers at 13%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lyon have 4 in 7 this season (3 of 4 at home), Angers 4 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Lyon and 0.77 for Angers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Ligue 1 rates, last season and this season combined, are 70% and 34% (this season so far: 72% with a first-half goal, from 64 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 79% and 47%). Lyon's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 74%; Angers's last 50, 66% and 70%. A goal in both halves: 53% (league 57%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 28%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Lyon season stats · Angers season stats · Ligue 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.