NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Linfield at 68%, the draw at 22% and Dungannon Swifts at 10%, from expected goals of 1.85 and 0.54.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Linfield have 5 in 12 this season (2 of 6 at home), Dungannon Swifts 3 in 11 (1 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.85 for Linfield and 0.54 for Dungannon Swifts. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linfield | 12 | 42% | 17% | 42% |
| Dungannon Swifts | 11 | 27% | 18% | 27% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 40% of two or more. The NIFL Premiership rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 39% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 69 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 45% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Linfield's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Dungannon Swifts's last 50, 78% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 58% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Linfield season stats · Dungannon Swifts season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.