NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Limavady United at 51%, the draw at 23% and Crusaders FC at 26%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.26.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Limavady United have 5 in 11 this season (3 of 6 at home), Crusaders FC 11 in 12 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.87 for Limavady United and 1.26 for Crusaders FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limavady United | 11 | 45% | 27% | 45% |
| Crusaders FC | 12 | 92% | 25% | 67% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The NIFL Premiership rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 39% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 69 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Limavady United's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Crusaders FC's last 50, 82% and 88%. A goal in both halves: 65% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Limavady United season stats · Crusaders FC season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.