Superettan · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superettan average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts IFK Norrkoping at 58%, the draw at 26% and Ostersunds FK at 16%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 0.66.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IFK Norrkoping have 14 in 27 this season (8 of 14 at home), Ostersunds FK 8 in 27 (4 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 27 and 27 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.54 for IFK Norrkoping and 0.66 for Ostersunds FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Norrkoping | 27 | 52% | 33% | 41% |
| Ostersunds FK | 27 | 30% | 19% | 56% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The Superettan rates, last season and this season combined, are 73% and 36% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 216 games). After the break: 79% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 80% and 49%). IFK Norrkoping's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Ostersunds FK's last 50, 60% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 28%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: IFK Norrkoping season stats · Ostersunds FK season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.