Scottish Cup · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic (Scottish Cup, Saturday, 31 October 2026) 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 44%, the draw 27% and Musselburgh Athletic 30%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | – |
| Hill Of Beath Hawthorn win | 44% | Pick |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Musselburgh Athletic win | 30% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 77% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 86% | |
| Goal in both halves | 65% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 0 | — | — | — |
| Musselburgh Athletic | 0 | — | — | — |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 77% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 39% | 40% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 86% | 85% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 58% | 57% |
| Goal in both halves | 65% | 68% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 48% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 75% | 88% | 8 |
| Musselburgh Athletic | 55% | 91% | 11 |
League = last season and this season combined. Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Scottish Cup fixtures
League. Scottish Cup has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 0 of 0, Musselburgh Athletic 0 of 0. Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 50% and 50%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.45 (Hill Of Beath Hawthorn) v 1.15 (Musselburgh Athletic) give 48%; 30% weight: 49%.
Season opener. Openers run about 2.5 points under the league norm: 47%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 48%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.