Promotion League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 73% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 29% | Yes |
The result model puts Grand-Saconnex at 42%, the draw at 20% and Young Boys II at 38%, from expected goals of 2.33 and 2.2.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Grand-Saconnex have 8 in 12 this season (5 of 7 at home), Young Boys II 11 in 12 (7 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 76%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 70% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 83%, from expected goals of 2.33 for Grand-Saconnex and 2.2 for Young Boys II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand-Saconnex | 12 | 67% | 25% | 50% |
| Young Boys II | 12 | 92% | 75% | 83% |
Our numbers give this match a 80% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 50% of two or more. The Promotion League rates, last season and this season combined, are 80% and 48% (this season so far: 82% with a first-half goal, from 106 games). After the break: 85% for a goal and 60% for two or more (league 86% and 61%). Grand-Saconnex's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; Young Boys II's last 50, 82% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 69% (league 70%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 30%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Grand-Saconnex season stats · Young Boys II season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.