Promotion League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Schaffhausen at 66%, the draw at 19% and Amical Saint-Prex at 16%, from expected goals of 2.43 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Schaffhausen have 8 in 11 this season (4 of 5 at home), Amical Saint-Prex 9 in 12 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 2.43 for FC Schaffhausen and 1.12 for Amical Saint-Prex. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schaffhausen | 11 | 73% | 36% | 55% |
| Amical Saint-Prex | 12 | 75% | 50% | 58% |
Our numbers give this match a 79% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 44% of two or more. The Promotion League rates, last season and this season combined, are 80% and 48% (this season so far: 82% with a first-half goal, from 106 games). After the break: 85% for a goal and 60% for two or more (league 86% and 61%). FC Schaffhausen's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Amical Saint-Prex's last 12, 75% and 83%. A goal in both halves: 66% (league 70%). Highest-scoring half: second 47%, first 30%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: FC Schaffhausen season stats · Amical Saint-Prex season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.