Bookmaker chances have the margin removed. The model reads goals, not team news.
CompactStats rates Coritiba vs Vitoria (Serie A, Saturday, 31 October 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Coritiba 47%, the draw 28% and Vitoria 26%.
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| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| This game | Coritiba | Vitoria | League | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 62% | 72% | 72% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 66% | 78% | 77% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 42% | 58% | 56% |
Half with most goals: 2nd half 43% this game (league: 2nd half 43%).
This game = our chance. Coritiba: last 50 games, Vitoria: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.
More: Coritiba season stats · Vitoria season stats · Serie A table and form
Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.
| Market | Price | Bookmaker % | Our chance | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 47% | -2 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 53% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 54% | 51% | -3 |
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Diff is the gap in points: plus means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does. It is not value or a tip: when we disagree, the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker, last checked at 12:04 UK time on Wed 28 Oct, and move all the time.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.