NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Cliftonville FC at 27%, the draw at 24% and Carrick Rangers at 49%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 1.8.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cliftonville FC have 6 in 12 this season (4 of 6 at home), Carrick Rangers 7 in 12 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 70%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Cliftonville FC and 1.8 for Carrick Rangers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliftonville FC | 12 | 50% | 17% | 42% |
| Carrick Rangers | 12 | 58% | 50% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The NIFL Premiership rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 39% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 69 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 45% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Cliftonville FC's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Carrick Rangers's last 50, 78% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Cliftonville FC season stats · Carrick Rangers season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.