Promotion League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Cham at 47%, the draw at 24% and Bavois at 29%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cham have 7 in 11 this season (5 of 7 at home), Bavois 5 in 12 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Cham and 1.4 for Bavois. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 79% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 46% of two or more. The Promotion League rates, last season and this season combined, are 80% and 48% (this season so far: 82% with a first-half goal, from 106 games). After the break: 87% for a goal and 58% for two or more (league 86% and 61%). Cham's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 92%; Bavois's last 50, 76% and 90%. A goal in both halves: 71% (league 70%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 30%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Cham season stats · Bavois season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.