Promotion League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Breitenrain at 38%, the draw at 26% and Basel II at 37%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Breitenrain have 8 in 12 this season (4 of 6 at home), Basel II 11 in 12 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 76%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Breitenrain and 1.42 for Basel II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breitenrain | 12 | 67% | 42% | 50% |
| Basel II | 12 | 92% | 58% | 75% |
Our numbers give this match a 82% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 47% of two or more. The Promotion League rates, last season and this season combined, are 80% and 48% (this season so far: 82% with a first-half goal, from 106 games). After the break: 85% for a goal and 58% for two or more (league 86% and 61%). Breitenrain's last 50 games had a first-half goal 82% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Basel II's last 50, 86% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 70% (league 70%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 31%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Breitenrain season stats · Basel II season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.