NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Ballymena United at 48%, the draw at 28% and Bangor at 24%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 0.9.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ballymena United have 6 in 11 this season (1 of 4 at home), Bangor 7 in 12 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.41 for Ballymena United and 0.9 for Bangor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballymena United | 11 | 55% | 27% | 64% |
| Bangor | 12 | 58% | 42% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 41% of two or more. The NIFL Premiership rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 39% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 69 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Ballymena United's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Bangor's last 50, 78% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 61% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Ballymena United season stats · Bangor season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.