Kvindeligaen (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Kvindeligaen (W) average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts ASA Aarhus W at 44%, the draw at 23% and KoldingQ W at 33%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.61.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. ASA Aarhus W have 8 in 11 this season (3 of 5 at home), KoldingQ W 10 in 11 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.87 for ASA Aarhus W and 1.61 for KoldingQ W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASA Aarhus W | 11 | 73% | 55% | 64% |
| KoldingQ W | 11 | 91% | 82% | 64% |
Our numbers give this match a 79% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 46% of two or more. The Kvindeligaen (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 76% and 42% (this season so far: 87% with a first-half goal, from 55 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 79% and 43%). ASA Aarhus W's last 21 games had a first-half goal 86% of the time and a second-half goal 81%; KoldingQ W's last 50, 82% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 68% (league 64%). Highest-scoring half: second 41%, first 32%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: ASA Aarhus W season stats · KoldingQ W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.