Super Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super Liga average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts AS Trencin at 29%, the draw at 22% and FK Košice at 49%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 2.01.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AS Trencin have 7 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), FK Košice 7 in 10 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.52 for AS Trencin and 2.01 for FK Košice. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Trencin | 10 | 70% | 40% | 70% |
| FK Košice | 10 | 70% | 50% | 80% |
Our numbers give this match a 78% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 47% of two or more. The Super Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 41% (this season so far: 81% with a first-half goal, from 64 games). After the break: 76% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 75% and 48%). AS Trencin's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; FK Košice's last 50, 90% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 60% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 33%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: AS Trencin season stats · FK Košice season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.