Czech Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Czech Liga average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Artis at 34%, the draw at 26% and Zlin at 40%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.47.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Artis have 7 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Zlin 6 in 11 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Artis and 1.47 for Zlin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Czech Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 74% and 34% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 87 games). After the break: 75% for a goal and 42% for two or more (league 76% and 42%). Artis's last 12 games had a first-half goal 83% of the time and a second-half goal 67%; Zlin's last 50, 78% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 58% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 41%, first 30%, level 29% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Artis season stats · Zlin season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.