Botola Pro · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Botola Pro average is 38%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Amal Tiznit at 25%, the draw at 31% and Kawkab Marrakech at 45%, from expected goals of 0.82 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. Botola Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Amal Tiznit have 2 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Kawkab Marrakech 2 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 40% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 0.82 for Amal Tiznit and 1.21 for Kawkab Marrakech. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amal Tiznit | 4 | 50% | 50% | 75% |
| Kawkab Marrakech | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 61% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 25% of two or more. The Botola Pro rates, last season and this season combined, are 63% and 26% (this season so far: 67% with a first-half goal, from 30 games). After the break: 72% for a goal and 37% for two or more (league 72% and 35%). Amal Tiznit's last 5 games had a first-half goal 40% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Kawkab Marrakech's last 34, 62% and 65%. A goal in both halves: 46% (league 47%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 29%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Amal Tiznit season stats · Kawkab Marrakech season stats · Botola Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.