Premier League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 36% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 35%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Abu Qair Semad at 35%, the draw at 31% and Ghazl El Mehalla at 34%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Abu Qair Semad have 1 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), Ghazl El Mehalla 3 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 37%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 30% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Abu Qair Semad and 1.05 for Ghazl El Mehalla. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abu Qair Semad | 7 | 14% | 0% | 29% |
| Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 43% | 14% | 29% |
Our numbers give this match a 54% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 21% of two or more. The Premier League rates, last season and this season combined, are 58% and 21% (this season so far: 56% with a first-half goal, from 70 games). After the break: 72% for a goal and 32% for two or more (league 72% and 35%). Abu Qair Semad's last 7 games had a first-half goal 43% of the time and a second-half goal 100%; Ghazl El Mehalla's last 50, 46% and 60%. A goal in both halves: 42% (league 44%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 26%, level 30% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Abu Qair Semad season stats · Ghazl El Mehalla season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.