Meistaradeildin · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistaradeildin average is 68%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts AB at 45%, the draw at 26% and 07 Vestur at 29%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AB have 14 in 25 this season (8 of 12 at home), 07 Vestur 10 in 25 (3 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 25 and 25 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.51 for AB and 1.16 for 07 Vestur. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 44% of two or more. The Meistaradeildin rates, last season and this season combined, are 73% and 42% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 125 games). After the break: 86% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 86% and 57%). AB's last 50 games had a first-half goal 84% of the time and a second-half goal 92%; 07 Vestur's last 50, 64% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 64% (league 62%). Highest-scoring half: second 48%, first 30%, level 22% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: AB season stats · 07 Vestur season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.