Pro League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 15:35. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 70%, the draw at 16% and Al-Ittihad Kalba at 13%, from expected goals of 2.71 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have 2 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), Al-Ittihad Kalba 5 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.71 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.13 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 33% | 33% | 50% |
| Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 83% | 67% | 67% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Pro League rates are 71% and 36%. After the break: 81% for a goal and 53% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 50, 70% and 82%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai season stats · Al-Ittihad Kalba season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.