Ligue 2 · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligue 2 average is 47%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Rodez at 37%, the draw at 23% and Dunkerque at 40%, from expected goals of 1.73 and 1.79.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rodez have 6 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Dunkerque 4 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.73 for Rodez and 1.79 for Dunkerque. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The Ligue 2 rates are 66% and 33%. After the break: 77% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 74% and 39%). Rodez's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Dunkerque's last 50, 74% and 80%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Rodez season stats · Dunkerque season stats · Ligue 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.