Premier League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 35%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Olympic El Qanah at 33%, the draw at 28% and Enppi at 38%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 1.26.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Olympic El Qanah have 3 in 7 this season (0 of 3 at home), Enppi 6 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 37% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.15 for Olympic El Qanah and 1.26 for Enppi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 43% | 14% | 86% |
| Enppi | 7 | 86% | 43% | 71% |
Our numbers give this match a 60% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 23% of two or more. The Premier League rates are 58% and 21%. After the break: 72% for a goal and 33% for two or more (league 72% and 35%). Olympic El Qanah's last 7 games had a first-half goal 71% of the time and a second-half goal 71%; Enppi's last 50, 62% and 70%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Olympic El Qanah season stats · Enppi season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.