Superettan · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superettan average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Oddevold at 43%, the draw at 25% and IK Brage at 32%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.39.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Oddevold have 16 in 27 this season (8 of 13 at home), IK Brage 17 in 27 (8 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 27 and 27 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Oddevold and 1.39 for IK Brage. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Superettan rates are 73% and 36%. After the break: 80% for a goal and 54% for two or more (league 80% and 49%). Oddevold's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; IK Brage's last 50, 74% and 90%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Oddevold season stats · IK Brage season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.