Superliga · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superliga average is 60%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Lyngby at 33%, the draw at 27% and Randers FC at 40%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.36.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lyngby have 6 in 11 this season (3 of 6 at home), Randers FC 5 in 11 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Lyngby and 1.36 for Randers FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyngby | 11 | 55% | 45% | 73% |
| Randers FC | 11 | 45% | 18% | 36% |
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The Superliga rates are 74% and 42%. After the break: 80% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 80% and 48%). Lyngby's last 50 games had a first-half goal 86% of the time and a second-half goal 92%; Randers FC's last 50, 72% and 68%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Lyngby season stats · Randers FC season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.