Ligue 2 · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Ligue 2 average is 47%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Laval at 26%, the draw at 32% and Boulogne at 42%, from expected goals of 0.78 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Laval have 7 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Boulogne 1 in 9 (0 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 37%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 45% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 0.78 for Laval and 1.1 for Boulogne. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 64% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 30% of two or more. The Ligue 2 rates are 66% and 33%. After the break: 75% for a goal and 42% for two or more (league 74% and 39%). Laval's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Boulogne's last 50, 56% and 76%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Laval season stats · Boulogne season stats · Ligue 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.