NIFL Premiership · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Larne at 68%, the draw at 19% and Portadown at 14%, from expected goals of 2.28 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Larne have 5 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), Portadown 6 in 12 (4 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.28 for Larne and 0.91 for Portadown. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The NIFL Premiership rates are 75% and 39%. After the break: 80% for a goal and 49% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Larne's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; Portadown's last 50, 68% and 86%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Larne season stats · Portadown season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.