Pro League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 12:55. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Dubai United at 48%, the draw at 23% and Khorfakkan at 29%, from expected goals of 1.86 and 1.41.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dubai United have 5 in 6 this season (1 of 2 at home), Khorfakkan 3 in 6 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.86 for Dubai United and 1.41 for Khorfakkan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai United | 6 | 83% | 83% | 100% |
| Khorfakkan | 6 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Pro League rates are 71% and 36%. After the break: 82% for a goal and 50% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Dubai United's last 40 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 85%; Khorfakkan's last 50, 72% and 80%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Dubai United season stats · Khorfakkan season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.