Botola Pro · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Botola Pro average is 38%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Difaa EL Jadida at 32%, the draw at 26% and UTS Rabat at 43%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.54.
The league sets the starting point. Botola Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Difaa EL Jadida have 3 in 4 this season (2 of 3 at home), UTS Rabat 1 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 36%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 42% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Difaa EL Jadida and 1.54 for UTS Rabat. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Difaa EL Jadida | 4 | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| UTS Rabat | 4 | 25% | 0% | 25% |
Our numbers give this match a 62% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 25% of two or more. The Botola Pro rates are 63% and 26%. After the break: 73% for a goal and 38% for two or more (league 72% and 35%). Difaa EL Jadida's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; UTS Rabat's last 50, 52% and 76%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Difaa EL Jadida season stats · UTS Rabat season stats · Botola Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.