NIFL Premiership · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Coleraine FC at 44%, the draw at 26% and Glentoran at 30%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.26.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Coleraine FC have 8 in 12 this season (3 of 6 at home), Glentoran 5 in 12 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 13 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 77%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Coleraine FC and 1.26 for Glentoran. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coleraine FC | 12 | 67% | 50% | 58% |
| Glentoran | 12 | 42% | 0% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 40% of two or more. The NIFL Premiership rates are 75% and 39%. After the break: 82% for a goal and 50% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Coleraine FC's last 50 games had a first-half goal 82% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Glentoran's last 50, 72% and 86%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Coleraine FC season stats · Glentoran season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.