Copa del Rey · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Copa del Rey average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | no pick |
The result model puts Ribadesella CF at 64%, the draw at 20% and Racing Santander at 16%, from expected goals of 2.23 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. Copa del Rey has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ribadesella CF have 0 in 0 this season, Racing Santander 7 in 9 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.23 for Ribadesella CF and 1.04 for Racing Santander. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ribadesella CF | 0 | — | — | — |
| Racing Santander | 9 | 78% | 67% | 67% |
More: Racing Santander season stats · Copa del Rey fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.