Copa del Rey · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Copa del Rey average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | no pick |
The result model puts Hortaleza at 48%, the draw at 24% and Sevilla at 29%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 1.37.
The league sets the starting point. Copa del Rey has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hortaleza have 0 in 0 this season, Sevilla 6 in 9 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Hortaleza and 1.37 for Sevilla. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hortaleza | 0 | — | — | — |
| Sevilla | 9 | 67% | 56% | 78% |
More: Sevilla season stats · Copa del Rey fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.